Where will Israel

Release time：2024-05-21 11:33:43 Source：International Interactions news portal

The Red Sea, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon could all become future battlegrounds as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, a military expert warned today.

Tensions have been heightened further since Iran's assault on Israel on Saturday amid Israel's war with Hamas in Gaza and its own strikes targeting Iran in Syria.

Early this morning, Israel conducted strikes in Iran - defying US President Joe Biden's warnings over plunging the trouble region further into conflict.

Now, Middle East politics and security expert Michael Stephens has analysed the situation in an article for MailOnline, examining what could happen next.

Mr Stephens, who is senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and research group RAND Europe, looked at the impact on other countries such as Qatar, the UAE and Cyprus - and whether they could become involved in future.

The Middle East teeters on a worrying precipice following a week of retaliatory missiles strikes between Israel and Iran.

Where next Middle East flash points could be 

Israel-Lebanon border: Hezbollah which operates on the northern side has exchanged fire with Israel over 5,000 separate times since October 7. Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets estimated to be 150,000 a steep escalation could be devastating for both countries. Nevertheless this seems to be the last card for Iran to play.

Syria: Damascus is host to several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military commanders and battalions. These units could be used to help plan attacks from Syria, and/or be the targets of retaliation from Israeli airstrikes themselves as happened in March when an IRGC commander was killed in an airstrike. There's also a US base in the South East of the country which was hit by a drone a couple of months back, again another potential flash point.

Iraq: Shia militias connected to government ministries have the ability to target western interests such as embassies, oil companies and US military facilities. There is a US base in western Iraq - and, up in the Kurdish capital of Erbil, the Iranians may consider targeting these bases with ballistic missiles or drones, thus dragging the US deeper into the conflict.

Gulf states: Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE host significant US bases, which include a strong UK military presence. However these states have been clear to state that no retaliatory strike on Iran can be launched from these bases, and they will not accept being pulled into a wider Israel/US versus Iran confrontation. The likelihood of conflict breaking out inside the Gulf is quite low. There is also a military base at Duqm in Oman, however Oman maintains a balanced relationship with Iran and the West, and it is highly unlikely they would be a target. More likely is the disruption of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian Naval assets, as has happened many times before.

Red Sea/Yemen: Iran's Houthi allies are a highly disruptive force in Yemen. After nine years of war, they have become difficult to dislodge from their bases in the North, and control the capital city Sanaa. For four months they have targeted civilian shipping, and have faced retaliation from US/UK air forces. However they retain the ability to target ships with missiles and drones, making travel in the region highly unsafe. These attacks could escalate or even be expanded into the Indian Ocean as Iran seeks to use all means at its disposal to up the cost of conflict for the West.

Israel: As we have seen, the Israeli homeland is now a theatre of war following the Iranian strikes of April 13. Iran said after that strike that it considered the matter closed, unless Israel retaliated - in which case it would launch far greater strikes. Now Israel has retaliated, we wait to see what Tehran decides to do.

Iran: Israel has likewise struck into the Iranian homeland, and has the ability to do so again, multiple times should it so wish. It is unlikely that Israel would target facilities with radioactive material, but associated infrastructure and military facilities should be considered likely targets in the event of an escalation.

Cyprus: Akrotiri is where many UK air operations are conducted from. But Iran is unlikely to target this. 

Tension between the two countries is nothing new. For the past two decades both sides have fought a shadow war, through proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, or using clandestine activities, and cyber warfare to target the other side's infrastructure.

But importantly, neither country used its military to openly strike inside the other's sovereign territory.

This week that taboo was broken, and it places the region into a worrying new dynamic whereby Israel and Iran may feel it necessary to keep retaliating to avoid looking weak in the face of the other.

As things currently stand, events are moving so fast that predicting how this will play out is difficult, and the level of tension means that a miscalculation by either side could lead to a rapid escalation of regional violence.

It's useful to consider that if things do escalate, how that might happen, and where that might be.

The region is replete with potential flash points that could unravel quickly, but some places are more dangerous than others, and as a result are less likely to destabilise immediately.

The Red Sea is likely the first place to expect more problems.

Iran's Houthi allies are a highly disruptive force in Yemen, after nine years of civil war they have become difficult to dislodge from their bases on the West Coast, and they are in total control of the capital city Sanaa.

For four months they have targeted civilian shipping, and have faced retaliation from US/UK air forces.

However, they retain the ability to target ships with missiles and drones making travel in the region highly unsafe.

These attacks could easily escalate or even be expanded into the Indian Ocean as Iran seeks to use all means at its disposal to up the cost of conflict for the West.

In Iraq, Shia militias - some of whom are loyal to Iran - connected to government ministries have the ability to target western interests such as embassies, oil companies and US military facilities.

The US run Al Assad military base in western Iraq, and the airbase in the Kurdish capital of Erbil has been targeted before.

And the Iranians may consider targeting these bases with ballistic missiles or drones, thus dragging the US deeper into the conflict. 

Israel has also conducted airstrikes against these militias in 2019, and the Israelis may feel further strikes would be a good way to hurt Iran without directly targeting its homeland again.

The Israelis may well decide to up the ante in Syria, where the capital of Damascus is host to several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military commanders and battalions.

These units could be used to help plan Iranian attacks from Syria, as well as be the targets of retaliation from Israeli airstrikes, such as what happened in March when senior IRGC commander Mohamed Reza Zahedi was killed in a targeted Israeli airstrike.

Iran's logistical links from the Syrian capital to its allies in Lebanon - Hezbollah - make southern Syria an obvious flashpoint which could see rapid escalation and retaliatory strikes between both sides.

Then there is Lebanon itself, where Lebanese Hezbollah has exchanged fire with Israel over 5,000 separate times since October 7.

Since then 200 Lebanese and 16 Israelis have been killed, and large areas both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border remain depopulated as civilians have fled in fear.

Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets estimated to be over 150,000. If these were launched they would overwhelm Israel's multilayered air defence system and cause widespread devastation across the country.

A cloud of smoke down the road from an explosion in Nuseirat in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday

Israeli soldiers in the Gaza Strip amid continuing battles, in a photograph released yesterday

Palestinians inspect the damage to a building at Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip yesterday

Israel would have to invade Lebanon in retaliation, leading to a war so severe it would make Gaza look like an entrée course. 

Given how bad this outcome could be, it is unlikely either Iran or Israel would push for an all-out conflict in the north unless things got so bad that there was simply no other option.

Then of course there's Israel and Iran themselves.

Given the large distance between the two countries it's not like either could directly invade, but both countries possess significant ballistic missile capabilities and scenes like the night of April 13 could certainly become a regular occurrence.

This would be of deep concern to the US and its Western allies such as the UK which are committed to Israel's defence.

A plume of smoke during Israeli bombardment in Gaza City yesterday amid the conflict

Palestinians inspect the site of an Israeli strike on a house in Rafah in Gaza on Wednesday

Israeli soldiers fire mortars from southern Israel towards the Gaza Strip on Wednesday

While Israel is suspected to have nuclear weapons, Iran currently has not yet produced a weapon of its own, and so there's thankfully no chance of a mushroom cloud appearing in the Middle East any time soon.

It's worth nothing that Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates host significant US bases, which include a strong UK military presence. 

This could be used to help police the skies between Israel and Iran if things do become even worse.

However, these countries have been clear that no retaliatory strike on Iran can be launched from these bases, and they will not accept being pulled into a wider Israel/US versus Iran confrontation.

So, the likelihood of conflict breaking out inside the Gulf is quite low.

A Palestinian inspects the damage to a building at Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip yesterday

People stand amid the damage caused by fire after an Israeli attack in Duma on Wednesday

Israeli military vehicles drive along a devastated street in the Nur Shams refugee camp today

But far more likely is the disruption of shipping through the Straits of Hormuz by Iranian Naval assets, as has happened many times before, which would force up oil prices and heavily disrupt as much as a third of the world's energy supplies. 

This all makes for a very worrying picture, where multiple flashpoints can engulf the region in a much wider conflict.

Iran's assets across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen mean that it has many pressure points it can push on to increase the pain if things escalate.

Meanwhile Israel's vastly superior military technology means it can strike accurately at Iranian assets any place and any time.

Lebanese villagers pass by a building destroyed by Israeli shelling in Kfar Kila, a Lebanese border village with Israel, yesterday

Israeli armored personnel carriers move near the Israeli-Gaza border on Wednesday

An Israeli house in the northern Israeli border town of Metula damaged by Hezbollah shelling, seen from the Lebanese side of the Lebanese-Israeli border village of Kfar Kila yesterday

People visit the Mount of Olives in the Old City of Jerusalem today as the conflict continues

There is much urgent diplomacy taking place in the region that will hopefully allow cooler heads on all sides to prevail.

The most important thing will be to allow both Israel and Iran an off-ramp from their current cycle of escalation before things get any worse.

The only positive is that despite the headline-grabbing sight of missiles flying back and forward, no one has actually been killed - and civilians have not been the intended targets.

So there's still time for diplomacy to prevail and for the region to avoid a wider war.

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